So I came across an article today that analyzed the economic plans of the candidates both Dem and Republican. I initially started this letter because Ron Paul was neglected and I address that briefly, but actually address the general economics that people seem to forget or just utterly disregard. Enjoy my letter and feel free to correct me if I made some mistakes so I can learn, because in the end, that is all that matters.
Here is the article that got me inspired: Whose Stimulus Makes the Grade
Here is my Letter to her:
Dear Ruth Marcus,
Thank you for your article explaining the candidates new economic plans. I see a lot of the Democratic candidates are all about spending money to stimulate the economy and this I do not agree with. Yes, our economy is going through a rough time and a lot of people are hurting, including myself.
I don't understand how George Bush's plan to send money back to Americans is going to help stimulate the economy in the long run. Once the American people get their money, Bush is hoping the spend this money so it will go right back into the economy. This does nothing to help the actual income levels of these people and does nothing to create new jobs. Coming from the business side, this will not create any new jobs because this will be a predictable, one time increase in revenue for businesses because Americans will spend it, and then go back to the same hurt they were feeling before.
The other candidates on the Democrat side, Obama wants to send more tax credit out, which will cause the same issue, as I have mentioned, about George Bush's plan. If the economy continues to go badly, and it will for reasons discussed later, He will issue another $250 tax credit. Then Obama wants to issue another set of credits to a specific class of citizens, in hopes they will spend this money.
Edwards, I am not entirely clear on everything he wants to do, aside from stimulate jobs, is to be seen as another deficiency. Why invest in a certain job type and try to stimulate that way? Sure, it is a better plan for economic relief in the long run, but which jobs specifically do you stimulate? How do you stimulate them? Tax credits? Reduced tax rates? This part is very unclear for me and I hope you can clarify this part.
Hilary wants to just dump money is needless things, like heating saving. This really makes little sense, because this does nothing for energy independence and will not be recognized by Americans. If your heating gets cheaper, most people will see that as a good thing and will do little to watch their cost for this area and it will end up staying around the same.
I watched the debate last night from Florida and most everyone on the stage seemed reluctant to say they support the Bush program but wants to expand it. This can generically be applied the 4 of the 5 candidates about cutting taxes to businesses but not individuals and nothing to help the savings of the people and helping them have something to look forward to at the end of this economic downturn.
Now in your article, you did not mention Ron Paul's plan. This is most upsetting since there were 5 candidates on stage in Florida last night and you only care to talk about 4. In your article I noticed a few basic, and incorrect assumptions and strangely enough Ron Paul's plan addresses these assumptions and the consequences of these, while at the same time will provide a permanent relief.
The first assumption is that of economic cycles and business cycles, apparently we think we are exempt and our economy grows somewhere between a linear and exponential rate. A free market economy will always have recessions and growths, booms and busts. That is just the natural tendency of any economy. I don't know why so many people do not seem to understand this very basic nature that I was taught back in Macro-Economics in College. Austrian economics This recession has been predictable and expected. The reasons behind, why this one is expected to be pretty bad will be discussed in the second false assumption made by the general public about the economy. We have been living in a great time of economic growth, that has jumped by double digits for some 19+ quarters and that is great. The problem is that according to the business cycle, this will eventually come to an end for a period of time and then return to a greater or equal growth prior to the downturn. So, since this is expected, why is everyone trying to stop it, it is the same as trying to prevent a hurricane or tornado. It happens, its natural, just ride it out and wait for the sun to come out.
The second assumption is a major failure that results from the first assumption and comes down to government involvement in delaying or correcting a recession and is precisely what the Austrian School of economics addresses. Although the Austrian School blames government regulation for the business cycle in general, it does attribute worse recessions with regulation and trying to correct the inherent problems with the Federal Reserve. The answer given by Bush to pour more money into the economy, which Democrats want to expand up is precisely the problem. Pouring money into a broken system will accelerate and/or worsen the downturn. Since 1971 the US has printed over 13 Trillion dollars. That is 13,000,000,000,000 of new wealth that came out of thin air. Why has the dollar's inflation gone up and is only worth .04 compared to the dollar of 1913? Why is the price of gold floating around $900? These questions are simply answered to our intervention in markets and the money supply. As long as the government is will to create new money and play with the natural realm of interest rates there will be booms and busts as the market tries to compensate for the fluctuations.
Now, that was a very brief thought so I can move on and not write another book. Ron Paul understands these concepts and wants to remove the tax burden, but that is only a small step. Unlike the other Republicans, he understands that it is impossible to lower taxes and at the same time increase spending. Our foreign policy is costing us over 600 billion per year and that doesn't include Iraq and Afghanistan. We give out hundreds of billions of dollars in aid to countries around the world because we can print money and borrow. This has to stop if we want to take care of ourselves. Taking care of countries around the world with aid and troops is something an empire does. We are not an empire!
I am getting tired of talking about this becuase I am sure you will read this and discard it, however I could not just be silent. I am sick of people disregarding general economic theory and thinking that just because they want to do something, everything will turn out ok. Ron Paul does not want to do anything. He wants to do less, because we can't afford what we are doing anymore. We have no more money, inflation is around 10-12 percent, we are out of money so we borrow from China and other countries and print more. ANY business would have long be under with these circumstances. Why should a government be any different if it is playing a role in the economy? The only bodies that play roles in economies are businesses, therefore the Government is not exempt from this.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Ron Paul's Secret Plan
Just passing along a word from GodLikeProductions
Remember the secret plan? You’re about to see it
The money was purposefully saved, prepare to get sick of Ron on national TV.
and,
I just gave you all I knew.
They were undershooting so they could get 3rd in the first two states…they weren’t far off in either. They didn’t WANT first, as it’s politically bad with super tuesday so far off (call it the buchannon effect).
Then comes the media blitz, you WILL see the money, and they WILL be targeting proper demographics now that they have the info, this is how he has won all of his elections. No other republican can effectively use the demographic information (fix the economy, end the war).
I don’t know anything beyond that other than they are hoping for others to drop out so he gets more air time during debates.
Others shared these thoughts:
“The media has been saying all along he is not viable, so we didn’t really lose much, yet.”
“It was hardly a very far fifth place finish it was damn close.”
“I have heard this too from the campaign! I had a good cry last night, but I am over it and ready to keep fighting the fight!
This aint over till the fat lady sings!”
“This would be good, especially since all the candidates have blown all their money on the first couple of states, and then Ron Paul comes in and blasts all the states on Super Tuesday with ads to take the lead right out from under everybody….BRILLIANT!”
“Facts we do know here
Based upon expenditure reports from air time being bought in NH and IA
1. RP appears to have about $20 million still stashed
2. RP is asking for another $23 million
3. RP Campaign has played it low key at first - look at the first few ads
4. RP Campaign came out with 4 great ads recently
5. RP campaign is starting tv and radio ads in 10 states this week based upon press releases
6. RP campaign definitely didn’t do an early state strategy in spite of funds raised and looking back if you think how much time and resources spent there by all campaigns RP was never going to stand out from the pack in IA and NH.”
“Gotta really think about it. It would be a good idea. This giga Tuesday thing is new. We cannot look at Iowa and NH as significant at all. It may be that Ron’s campaign has thought outside the box on this. If you think about it…here in California, I talk about the primaries with people and the majority cannot even name a candidate. This especially applies to the republican candidates.”
“The more that I think about this….and from the snippets I heard while in IA the more it becomes obvious that they have taken this course.
For three reasons:
1. Its impossible to stand out from the crowd in IA and NH
2. The field is way too crowded right now… let it settle out some first and let everyone beat up on each other and get bloodied up
3.. Most of their money in all honesty came in in the last month… too late to be spent on IA and NH but perfect for laying out a post IA, NH media blitz that will be unrivaled as other campaigns starve for cash”
“Is Ron Paul not the “thinking man’s candidate?” Once you consider this, “aiming for 3rd” strategy, it really does make sense, whether the poster was privvy to inside info or not. If Ron is sitting on a pile of cash now, why the hell would he continue to hold onto it? I’ll assume he plans on spending it!
Without having to spend a dime, Ron Paul, in a clever way, could be said to have used these two events in IA and NH to fish out all manner of valuable demographic information. Now that he’s got this info on so many important particulars, he can put his war chest to better use than ever before, instead of having to dump piles of cash into various efforts and cross his fingers. If you’ve got less money, overall, than people like Romney, Giuliani, Clinton, Obama, you’d better do your research first so you can get the most for your money when it comes time to spend. Does this not make perfect sense?
This is an intelligent man and regardless of what happens, this is not over until 2009.
Eyes on the prize”
“Ahh I love speculation… though so much of it makes sense… because if you think about it… the campaign really didn’t try hard at all for either of IA or NH, RP and Kent Snyder have had 20 years to plan this… RP has beaten the establishment before big time so everyone cheer up, don’t lose heart and donate some more money!”
“I’ve been mulling this all over tonight, and in reading this, the thought occured to me - does Ron Paul now hang his head and hang it up? and I honestly think the man would laugh at such an idea. He’s been a lone voice for decades - these results are nothing but encouragement for him.
The votes have not proven he’s a front runner, but they do NOTHING to prove his ideas wrong. Nothing whatsoever. He knows he’s right, we know he’s right. He’s got the Constitution, the founders, history and economics on his side, and he’s going to keep fighting the good fight as long as we stand with him.
Let’s stand with our man and march with him all the way, to the end.”
“Remember the field was too crowded at first.
Now Romney is hurting bad, Rudy is tanking, Thompson is sleeping, Huckabee is bogus, and McCain is still insane.”
“You all are missing the big picture.
We are a few % points away from #3. You want everyone else to kill everyone else. Then you step in to fill the void.
It is political strategy. If you think Dr. Paul is smart enough to understand the fed, the war, and so on: Why not understand that he knows what he is doing. He is playing the fiddle just like Huckabee….
Wait and watch”
“This thread is making me think. Even moreso, maybe Paul is crazy… just crazy like a fox.
1) You’re sitting on the largest Republican war chest
2) All your opponent’s fundraising is on life support, or they blew all their money in the first two or three primaries.
3) Each of the other candidates has a huge huge negative that will show up and turn off republican voters
If they can pull the following off, it would be the greatest election coup in history:
Parity of wins gives each candidate a few days in the sun, or a few days of good grilling by the conservative media for their undesirable chances. Huck’s vast tax and spending, McCain’s amnesty fiasco and McCain-Feingold, all of Rudy’s baggage from NYC, and Thompson’s lack of enthusiasm and personality all weigh on the mind of the Republican voters. Look at the first two primary winners for Iowa and NH:
Do you think people from the more liberal states are going to look at Huckabee and actually say, “I’ll vote for him”? No, they’re gonna see that record of his and remind themselves that they would never do that. He won Iowa, now he placed 3rd in NH.
Do you think people from the South and West are going to look at McCain and not remember the amnesty BS? They’re not going to vote for him. He placed 3rd in Iowa. In NH he pulled off a win. Is he going to win in Michigan or SC? No way.
As for second place, do you think people are going to look at Romney after he blew all his chances on two states, and consider him an electable candidate? When he polls at 12% nationally? And all of those flip flops from his days as governor?
He notices that Hillary is being built up as the comeback girl, which causes splinters in Obama’s support among independents. They end up looking for a new option, and it ain’t Edwards.
Meanwhile, Paul sits back; he lets the media in Iowa and NH do his polling work for him - with real election results, not opinion polls. He lets his opponents spend themselves into debt. He allows each one of them a few days in the spotlight to allow Republican voters to remember why they suck. He figures out what voting blocs are voting on what issue, and how independent voters are swinging. Using this he super-targets on the winning issues with his 20 million dollar war chest in the 2 weeks prior to super Tuesday (to get the most bang for the buck) while the grassroots continues, and the blimp flies on in SC and Florida.
Remember the secret plan? You’re about to see it
The money was purposefully saved, prepare to get sick of Ron on national TV.
and,
I just gave you all I knew.
They were undershooting so they could get 3rd in the first two states…they weren’t far off in either. They didn’t WANT first, as it’s politically bad with super tuesday so far off (call it the buchannon effect).
Then comes the media blitz, you WILL see the money, and they WILL be targeting proper demographics now that they have the info, this is how he has won all of his elections. No other republican can effectively use the demographic information (fix the economy, end the war).
I don’t know anything beyond that other than they are hoping for others to drop out so he gets more air time during debates.
Others shared these thoughts:
“The media has been saying all along he is not viable, so we didn’t really lose much, yet.”
“It was hardly a very far fifth place finish it was damn close.”
“I have heard this too from the campaign! I had a good cry last night, but I am over it and ready to keep fighting the fight!
This aint over till the fat lady sings!”
“This would be good, especially since all the candidates have blown all their money on the first couple of states, and then Ron Paul comes in and blasts all the states on Super Tuesday with ads to take the lead right out from under everybody….BRILLIANT!”
“Facts we do know here
Based upon expenditure reports from air time being bought in NH and IA
1. RP appears to have about $20 million still stashed
2. RP is asking for another $23 million
3. RP Campaign has played it low key at first - look at the first few ads
4. RP Campaign came out with 4 great ads recently
5. RP campaign is starting tv and radio ads in 10 states this week based upon press releases
6. RP campaign definitely didn’t do an early state strategy in spite of funds raised and looking back if you think how much time and resources spent there by all campaigns RP was never going to stand out from the pack in IA and NH.”
“Gotta really think about it. It would be a good idea. This giga Tuesday thing is new. We cannot look at Iowa and NH as significant at all. It may be that Ron’s campaign has thought outside the box on this. If you think about it…here in California, I talk about the primaries with people and the majority cannot even name a candidate. This especially applies to the republican candidates.”
“The more that I think about this….and from the snippets I heard while in IA the more it becomes obvious that they have taken this course.
For three reasons:
1. Its impossible to stand out from the crowd in IA and NH
2. The field is way too crowded right now… let it settle out some first and let everyone beat up on each other and get bloodied up
3.. Most of their money in all honesty came in in the last month… too late to be spent on IA and NH but perfect for laying out a post IA, NH media blitz that will be unrivaled as other campaigns starve for cash”
“Is Ron Paul not the “thinking man’s candidate?” Once you consider this, “aiming for 3rd” strategy, it really does make sense, whether the poster was privvy to inside info or not. If Ron is sitting on a pile of cash now, why the hell would he continue to hold onto it? I’ll assume he plans on spending it!
Without having to spend a dime, Ron Paul, in a clever way, could be said to have used these two events in IA and NH to fish out all manner of valuable demographic information. Now that he’s got this info on so many important particulars, he can put his war chest to better use than ever before, instead of having to dump piles of cash into various efforts and cross his fingers. If you’ve got less money, overall, than people like Romney, Giuliani, Clinton, Obama, you’d better do your research first so you can get the most for your money when it comes time to spend. Does this not make perfect sense?
This is an intelligent man and regardless of what happens, this is not over until 2009.
Eyes on the prize”
“Ahh I love speculation… though so much of it makes sense… because if you think about it… the campaign really didn’t try hard at all for either of IA or NH, RP and Kent Snyder have had 20 years to plan this… RP has beaten the establishment before big time so everyone cheer up, don’t lose heart and donate some more money!”
“I’ve been mulling this all over tonight, and in reading this, the thought occured to me - does Ron Paul now hang his head and hang it up? and I honestly think the man would laugh at such an idea. He’s been a lone voice for decades - these results are nothing but encouragement for him.
The votes have not proven he’s a front runner, but they do NOTHING to prove his ideas wrong. Nothing whatsoever. He knows he’s right, we know he’s right. He’s got the Constitution, the founders, history and economics on his side, and he’s going to keep fighting the good fight as long as we stand with him.
Let’s stand with our man and march with him all the way, to the end.”
“Remember the field was too crowded at first.
Now Romney is hurting bad, Rudy is tanking, Thompson is sleeping, Huckabee is bogus, and McCain is still insane.”
“You all are missing the big picture.
We are a few % points away from #3. You want everyone else to kill everyone else. Then you step in to fill the void.
It is political strategy. If you think Dr. Paul is smart enough to understand the fed, the war, and so on: Why not understand that he knows what he is doing. He is playing the fiddle just like Huckabee….
Wait and watch”
“This thread is making me think. Even moreso, maybe Paul is crazy… just crazy like a fox.
1) You’re sitting on the largest Republican war chest
2) All your opponent’s fundraising is on life support, or they blew all their money in the first two or three primaries.
3) Each of the other candidates has a huge huge negative that will show up and turn off republican voters
If they can pull the following off, it would be the greatest election coup in history:
Parity of wins gives each candidate a few days in the sun, or a few days of good grilling by the conservative media for their undesirable chances. Huck’s vast tax and spending, McCain’s amnesty fiasco and McCain-Feingold, all of Rudy’s baggage from NYC, and Thompson’s lack of enthusiasm and personality all weigh on the mind of the Republican voters. Look at the first two primary winners for Iowa and NH:
Do you think people from the more liberal states are going to look at Huckabee and actually say, “I’ll vote for him”? No, they’re gonna see that record of his and remind themselves that they would never do that. He won Iowa, now he placed 3rd in NH.
Do you think people from the South and West are going to look at McCain and not remember the amnesty BS? They’re not going to vote for him. He placed 3rd in Iowa. In NH he pulled off a win. Is he going to win in Michigan or SC? No way.
As for second place, do you think people are going to look at Romney after he blew all his chances on two states, and consider him an electable candidate? When he polls at 12% nationally? And all of those flip flops from his days as governor?
He notices that Hillary is being built up as the comeback girl, which causes splinters in Obama’s support among independents. They end up looking for a new option, and it ain’t Edwards.
Meanwhile, Paul sits back; he lets the media in Iowa and NH do his polling work for him - with real election results, not opinion polls. He lets his opponents spend themselves into debt. He allows each one of them a few days in the spotlight to allow Republican voters to remember why they suck. He figures out what voting blocs are voting on what issue, and how independent voters are swinging. Using this he super-targets on the winning issues with his 20 million dollar war chest in the 2 weeks prior to super Tuesday (to get the most bang for the buck) while the grassroots continues, and the blimp flies on in SC and Florida.
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